{
  "_meta": {
    "schema_version": "1.0",
    "title": "Frozen Prospective Predictions — Total Solar Eclipse 2026 August 12",
    "registration_purpose": "Prospective registration of three-bucket predictions (standard physics, dome-geometry-forced, symmetric falsification) for the 2026 Aug 12 total solar eclipse, intended for OpenTimestamps anchoring before the event so that post-event observations can be compared to pre-registered claims.",
    "frozen_at_utc": "2026-05-02T08:15:00.000Z",
    "event_iso_date": "2026-08-12",
    "ots_companion_file": "predictions/eclipse-2026-08-12-predictions.json.ots",
    "review_repo": "https://github.com/funwithscience-org/dome-model-review",
    "review_repo_commit_sha": "cd8af4b5d9c4e0d182b71ba6734dd0f0310011b5",
    "review_canonical_url": "https://funwithscience.net/dome-model-review/",
    "dome_repo": "https://github.com/john09289/predictions",
    "dome_repo_commit_sha": "c3b9f56fe622f6d3162a03671e797fe74fa6859a",
    "dome_repo_commit_date": "2026-05-02T00:03:03Z",
    "dome_canonical_url": "https://john09289.github.io/predictions/",
    "dome_version_tag": "V51.1",
    "license": "CC BY 4.0",
    "immutability_notice": "After OTS-anchoring this file MUST NOT be modified. Any updates to this analysis go in a new dated file and are anchored separately. Errata are published as separate dated addendum files; this file's claims stand as registered.",
    "verification_instructions": "(1) Verify the OTS proof: `ots verify eclipse-2026-08-12-predictions.json.ots` against this file's bytes. (2) Cross-check standard-physics numbers against the cited NASA Besselian-elements page (eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEbeselm/SEbeselm2001/SE2026Aug12Tbeselm.html) and path-table page (eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEpath/SEpath2001/SE2026Aug12Tpath.html). (3) Cross-check dome parameters by checking out the dome repo at the pinned dome_repo_commit_sha and inspecting api/current/formula_runtime.json (FORM-V51-001 H(r), FORM-V51-005 FSF), and predictions.html (per-station coverage/FSF table). (4) Cross-check our per-station distance computations by retrieving review_repo at review_repo_commit_sha and reading data/sections.json part4 element id=\"p4-427-station-coverage\".",
    "audience": "A third party reading this file plus the cited public sources should be able to verify each claim independently.",
    "revision_round": 2,
    "revision_history": [
      {
        "rev": 1,
        "frozen_at": "2026-05-02T00:09:03.856Z",
        "status": "withdrawn-pre-anchor",
        "reason": "Curmudgeon dual-pass review (queue_id=294) returned six MODERATE blockers (ISS-1801..1806). File was never OTS-anchored. Rev1 superseded by rev2 before any external timestamp was created."
      },
      {
        "rev": 2,
        "frozen_at": "2026-05-02T08:15:00.000Z",
        "status": "pre-anchor (this rev)",
        "reason": "Addresses ISS-1801..1806 plus selected non-blocking polish findings (see _meta.curmudgeon_blockers_resolved). No new predictions added; existing predictions tightened and falsification thresholds operationalized."
      }
    ],
    "curmudgeon_blockers_resolved": [
      "P2-RP",
      "P1-NF",
      "P1-SIGN",
      "P1-OBS-O-03",
      "P3-OBS-D-02",
      "P3-OBS-D-03"
    ],
    "integrated_at": "2026-05-02T17:59:00.823Z",
    "integrated_from_exp": "EXP-283",
    "integrated_via": "operator-direct after curmudgeon Pass 2 no_change verdict (qid=295)"
  },
  "context": {
    "what_this_is": "Three buckets of prospective predictions for the 2026 Aug 12 total solar eclipse, registered before the event and anchored with OpenTimestamps so that no party — including us — can rewrite the predictions after observation. This file is the canary-by-example: a textbook example of proper prospective prediction registration (predictions in their own immutable doc, OTS-anchored separately from observations).",
    "why_three_buckets": "Bucket 1 records what standard physics predicts. Bucket 2 records what the dome model — taken on its own published parameters at the pinned dome SHA — must predict. Bucket 3 records the symmetric falsification criteria for both models AND for our own analysis. After the event, observations are compared to the predictions in all three buckets.",
    "scope_limitation": "This is a high-confidence-only registration. Peripheral or weakly-endorsed claims have been excluded deliberately — over-commitment in a frozen document hurts more than under-commitment. Where per-station NASA values are not directly cited herein (e.g., per-station obscuration), the prediction defers to NASA Besselian-element pulls at evaluation time rather than committing to in-document values that we have not independently fetched and cited."
  },
  "event": {
    "name": "Total Solar Eclipse 2026 August 12",
    "iso_utc": "2026-08-12",
    "type": "total",
    "nasa_catalog_id": "SE2026Aug12T",
    "nasa_path_table_url": "https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEpath/SEpath2001/SE2026Aug12Tpath.html",
    "nasa_besselian_elements_url": "https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEbeselm/SEbeselm2001/SE2026Aug12Tbeselm.html",
    "nasa_authoritative_source": "F. Espenak, NASA GSFC Planetary Systems Laboratory",
    "nasa_data_retrieved_at_utc": "2026-05-02T00:09:03.856Z",
    "greatest_eclipse_time_utc": "17:45:53.8",
    "greatest_eclipse_lat_deg_N": 65.225,
    "greatest_eclipse_lon_deg_E": -25.228,
    "sun_apparent_semi_diameter_arcmin_arcsec": "15' 47.0\"",
    "moon_apparent_semi_diameter_arcmin_arcsec": "16' 16.9\"",
    "eclipse_magnitude": 1.0386,
    "lunation_no": 329
  },
  "bucket_1_standard_physics": {
    "description": "Predictions that follow from standard astronomical physics (distant Sun and Moon, spherical Earth, Besselian-elements geometry) and the Chapman-Sq ionospheric mechanism (Chapman 1919; Yamazaki & Maute 2017; Kim & Chang 2018) for the magnetic-field component.",
    "geometric_predictions": [
      {
        "claim_id": "B1-G-001",
        "claim": "Path of totality maximum width at greatest eclipse",
        "value": 294,
        "unit": "km",
        "confidence_bound": "±5 km (NASA Besselian-elements precision; rounded to whole-km for the central-line catalog)",
        "source": "NASA SE2026Aug12T path table at greatest eclipse (17:45:53.8 UT)",
        "source_url": "https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEpath/SEpath2001/SE2026Aug12Tpath.html",
        "retrieved_at_utc": "2026-05-02T00:09:03.856Z",
        "review_cross_ref": "data/sections.json part4 §4.2.7 'What August 12, 2026 actually produces'",
        "review_commit_sha": "cd8af4b5d9c4e0d182b71ba6734dd0f0310011b5"
      },
      {
        "claim_id": "B1-G-002",
        "claim": "Maximum central-line totality duration at greatest eclipse",
        "value": 138.2,
        "unit": "seconds",
        "raw_value": "02m18.2s",
        "confidence_bound": "±0.1 s (NASA Besselian-elements precision)",
        "source": "NASA SE2026Aug12T path table greatest-duration entry (17:44:42 UT)",
        "source_url": "https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEpath/SEpath2001/SE2026Aug12Tpath.html",
        "retrieved_at_utc": "2026-05-02T00:09:03.856Z",
        "review_cross_ref": "data/sections.json part4 §4.2.7 (138.2 s figure used in 4.2.7 trilemma argument)",
        "review_commit_sha": "cd8af4b5d9c4e0d182b71ba6734dd0f0310011b5"
      },
      {
        "claim_id": "B1-G-003",
        "claim": "Sun apparent semi-diameter at greatest eclipse",
        "value_arcmin_arcsec": "15' 47.0\"",
        "value_deg": 0.26306,
        "confidence_bound": "±0.05 arcsec (NASA Besselian-elements precision)",
        "source": "NASA SE2026Aug12T Besselian elements",
        "source_url": "https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEbeselm/SEbeselm2001/SE2026Aug12Tbeselm.html",
        "retrieved_at_utc": "2026-05-02T00:09:03.856Z"
      },
      {
        "claim_id": "B1-G-004",
        "claim": "Moon apparent semi-diameter at greatest eclipse",
        "value_arcmin_arcsec": "16' 16.9\"",
        "value_deg": 0.27136,
        "confidence_bound": "±0.05 arcsec (NASA Besselian-elements precision)",
        "source": "NASA SE2026Aug12T Besselian elements",
        "source_url": "https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEbeselm/SEbeselm2001/SE2026Aug12Tbeselm.html",
        "retrieved_at_utc": "2026-05-02T00:09:03.856Z"
      },
      {
        "claim_id": "B1-G-005",
        "claim": "Hartland (51.00° N, 4.48° W) maximum sun obscuration during partial-eclipse window",
        "value": 88,
        "unit": "percent",
        "confidence_bound": "±2 percentage points (rounding plus local-circumstances precision; Hartland is well off the central line, so partial-coverage peak is the relevant metric)",
        "source": "NASA SE2026Aug12T Besselian elements + local-circumstances calculation for Hartland coordinates; figure used in our review §4.2.7",
        "source_url": "https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEbeselm/SEbeselm2001/SE2026Aug12Tbeselm.html",
        "review_cross_ref": "data/sections.json part4 §4.2.7 ('at Hartland, partial coverage lasts roughly 2 h 45 min and peaks at ≈ 88 % obscuration')",
        "review_commit_sha": "cd8af4b5d9c4e0d182b71ba6734dd0f0310011b5",
        "note_for_other_stations": "Per-station obscuration percentages for the other 8 dome-cited stations are not committed here in this frozen file. We register Hartland 88% as the only per-station NASA-anchored obscuration value because it is the one explicitly documented in our review at the pinned commit. Per-station obscurations for the other stations should be pulled from NASA local-circumstances at evaluation time (we register the methodology, not a hand-computed table)."
      }
    ],
    "magnetic_predictions": [
      {
        "claim_id": "B1-M-001",
        "claim": "During the partial-eclipse window over north-western Europe, INTERMAGNET stations on the standard-physics path of partial coverage record a magnetic-field perturbation pattern consistent with the Chapman-Sq ionospheric mechanism: peak SIGNED deviation (negative, Sq-current weakening) of -25 to -5 nT at high-coverage stations under geomagnetically-quiet conditions (Kp < 2), with the perturbation tracking the apparent-shadow geometry over a window of 60-180 minutes (E-region recovery timescale).",
        "amplitude_unit": "nT (signed peak deviation from quiet-day baseline; negative convention — see sign_convention block)",
        "amplitude_caveats": [
          "Hard signed interval. The \"commonly\" qualifier from rev1 is dropped; -25 to -5 nT is the falsification interval and observations outside it (positive values, more-negative values) are not silently absorbed.",
          "Range derived from Chapman-Sq amplitude expectation for high-coverage stations under quiet conditions (Kim & Chang 2018 39-eclipse INTERMAGNET ensemble; Yamazaki & Maute 2017 Sq-conductivity review). Cited in our review §4.2.3.",
          "Exact per-station central values require running a Chapman-Sq / Yamazaki-Maute Sq-conductivity model with E-region electron densities (ionosonde / GPS-TEC / climatology) for the eclipse window, which is not done in-line in this frozen file.",
          "Disturbed conditions (Kp ≥ 2) inflate the noise floor and may obscure or distort the eclipse signal; this is well-known and is not by itself a falsification of either model."
        ],
        "scientific_sources": [
          "Chapman, S. (1919). The solar and lunar diurnal variations of terrestrial magnetism. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 218: 1–118.",
          "Yamazaki, Y., & Maute, A. (2017). Sq and EEJ — A review on the daily variation of the geomagnetic field caused by ionospheric dynamo currents. Space Science Reviews 206: 299–405. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11214-016-0282-z",
          "Kim, V. P., & Chang, H. Y. (2018). Geomagnetic effects of solar eclipses studied with a 39-eclipse 1991-2016 INTERMAGNET ensemble. Adv. Space Res. 61: 2040–2049."
        ],
        "review_cross_ref": "data/wins.json WIN-068 (39-eclipse ensemble) and §4.2.3 (Chapman-Sq amplitude window framing)",
        "review_commit_sha": "cd8af4b5d9c4e0d182b71ba6734dd0f0310011b5",
        "amplitude_range_nT_signed": [
          -25,
          -5
        ]
      }
    ]
  },
  "bucket_2_dome_geometry_forced": {
    "description": "Predictions that follow from the dome model's own published parameters at the pinned dome SHA, taken on its own terms. The dome publishes specific altitudes for Sun (5,733 km) and Moon (2,534 km), specific firmament/refraction formulas (FORM-V51-001, FORM-V51-002), specific eclipse-amplitude formula (ΔB = baseline × coverage × FSF), and a specific 9-station eclipse table. The predictions in this bucket are forced by those parameters once the standard NASA angular sizes and observed magnitudes are accepted as inputs.",
    "dome_params_pinned": {
      "h_sun_km": 5733,
      "h_moon_km": 2534,
      "disc_radius_km": 20015,
      "firmament_height_formula": "H(r) = 8537 * exp(-r / 8619)",
      "firmament_formula_id": "FORM-V51-001",
      "refraction_index_formula": "n(r) = 1 + 0.20 * (8537 / H(r) - 1)",
      "refraction_formula_id": "FORM-V51-002",
      "eclipse_scaling_formula": "ΔB(station) = baseline × coverage × FSF",
      "eclipse_baseline_nT_BOU_2017": -10.9,
      "fsf_formula_id": "FORM-V51-005",
      "fsf_formula_published": "FSF(lat) = 0.19550 / sin(lat)^0.1640 * 32.974^(lat / 90)",
      "fsf_table_observed_match": "FSF = tan(lat)/tan(40°) reproduces published per-station FSFs at Pearson r ≈ 0.9999 (review §4.2.4)",
      "kappa_coupling_formula": "Δg(μGal) = ΔB(nT) / 1.672",
      "kappa_formula_id": "FORM-V51-004",
      "params_source_url": "https://john09289.github.io/predictions/api/current/formula_runtime.json",
      "params_source_dome_sha": "c3b9f56fe622f6d3162a03671e797fe74fa6859a"
    },
    "geometric_predictions": [
      {
        "claim_id": "B2-G-001",
        "claim": "Totality (umbra) circle diameter at disc level, derived from h_Sun = 5,733 km, h_Moon = 2,534 km, NASA Sun semi-diameter 15'47.0\" and Moon semi-diameter 16'16.9\"",
        "value": 1.317,
        "unit": "km",
        "derivation": "R_Sun = h_Sun · tan(α_Sun) = 5,733 × tan(0.26306°) = 26.32 km; R_Moon = h_Moon · tan(α_Moon) = 2,534 × tan(0.27136°) = 12.00 km; D = h_Sun − h_Moon = 3,199 km; umbra radius at disc R_u = R_Moon − (R_Sun − R_Moon) · h_Moon / D = 12.00 − 14.32 × 2,534 / 3,199 = 0.658 km. Totality diameter = 2 R_u = 1.317 km.",
        "confidence_bound": "±0.03 km (rounding of input semi-diameters; result is dominated by the h_Sun − h_Moon difference and small changes in either altitude swing R_u by ~0.05–0.1 km)",
        "review_cross_ref": "data/sections.json part4 §4.2.7 ('a totality circle roughly 1.3 km in diameter')",
        "review_commit_sha": "cd8af4b5d9c4e0d182b71ba6734dd0f0310011b5"
      },
      {
        "claim_id": "B2-G-002",
        "claim": "Penumbra (any-partial-coverage) ring radius at disc level, same dome parameters",
        "value": 42.4,
        "unit": "km",
        "derivation": "R_p = R_Moon + (R_Sun + R_Moon) · h_Moon / D = 12.00 + 38.32 × 2,534 / 3,199 = 42.36 km, rounded to R_p = 42.4 km (declared canonical value used uniformly across all multiplier reports in this file). Penumbra band width = 2 R_p ≈ 84.7 km. NOTE: All per-station multipliers (B2-G-004 closest/farthest and B2-M-001 per_station) are computed as min_distance / 42.4 and rounded to 1 decimal place — see noise_floor_pre_commitment for falsification thresholds.",
        "confidence_bound": "±2 km (input rounding + parallel-ray approximation of the dome's own eclipse-page geometry)",
        "review_cross_ref": "data/sections.json part4 §4.2.7a 'Dome geometric facts (carried from 4.2.7)'",
        "review_commit_sha": "cd8af4b5d9c4e0d182b71ba6734dd0f0310011b5"
      },
      {
        "claim_id": "B2-G-003",
        "claim": "Single-station totality duration under dome geometry, lower and upper bounds",
        "value_low_seconds": 0.9,
        "value_high_seconds": 7,
        "unit": "seconds",
        "derivation": "Lower bound: Moon transits the 1.317 km totality strip at the rim-orbit upper bound 87 km/min (24-h circuit of 20,015 km disc rim) → 1.317 / 87 × 60 ≈ 0.9 s. Upper bound: at the Moon's actual observed angular speed (~0.25°/min at h_Moon = 2,534 km, equivalent to ~11 km/min ground speed) → 1.317 / 11 × 60 ≈ 7 s. Mid-disc charity at 25 km/min gives ~3 s.",
        "review_cross_ref": "data/sections.json part4 §4.2.7 ('lengthening to about 3 seconds at 25 km/min … only ~7 seconds … still close to 20× short of the observed 138-second maximum')",
        "review_commit_sha": "cd8af4b5d9c4e0d182b71ba6734dd0f0310011b5"
      },
      {
        "claim_id": "B2-G-004",
        "claim": "Number of dome's own 9 published eclipse stations sitting inside the dome-geometry penumbra band (R_disc/90 charitable AE-from-N projection)",
        "value": 0,
        "unit": "stations (out of 9)",
        "closest_station": {
          "name": "Ebro",
          "min_distance_to_dome_umbra_path_km": 444,
          "multiple_of_R_p": 10.5
        },
        "farthest_station": {
          "name": "Canary Islands (SNK/GUI)",
          "min_distance_to_dome_umbra_path_km": 4084,
          "multiple_of_R_p": 96.3
        },
        "robustness_check_stricter_AE_convention": "Under the stricter AE-from-S convention (R_disc/180), every per-station distance halves but the closest station (Ebro at 222 km) still sits 5.2× R_p outside the 84.7-km band — 0/9 headline survives.",
        "review_cross_ref": "data/sections.json part4 §4.2.7a 'Per-station distance from the projected umbra path' table",
        "review_commit_sha": "cd8af4b5d9c4e0d182b71ba6734dd0f0310011b5",
        "r_p_used_for_multipliers_km": 42.4,
        "r_p_consistency_note": "All multipliers in this entry and in B2-M-001 per_station entries use the canonical R_p = 42.4 km from B2-G-002. Rev1 inconsistency (where the closest/farthest block used R_p=42 km and the per_station table used R_p=42.36 km) is resolved.",
        "projection_convention": {
          "name": "Azimuthal-equidistant from North Pole (AE-from-N)",
          "scaling": "R_disc / 90° latitude (the \"charity\" convention — gives the dome the largest disc radii and thus the SHORTEST distances to the umbra path)",
          "rationale": "Charity convention chosen so the 0/9-stations-inside-penumbra headline cannot be attacked as projection-driven; under the stricter R_disc/180° convention every per-station distance halves but Ebro at 222 km still sits 5.2× R_p outside the 84.7-km band, so the 0/9 headline survives both conventions.",
          "reference": "data/sections.json part4 §4.2.7a \"Per-station distance from the projected umbra path\" footnote on projection convention (review SHA cd8af4b)"
        }
      }
    ],
    "magnetic_predictions": [
      {
        "claim_id": "B2-M-001",
        "claim": "Per-station ΔB predicted by dome's published formula ΔB = baseline × coverage × FSF, using BOU 2017 baseline = -10.9 nT and dome's own published per-station coverage and FSF values",
        "baseline_nT": -10.9,
        "baseline_source": "Boulder (BOU) 2017 eclipse anchor used by the dome for the V51.1 formula; review WIN-010",
        "per_station": [
          {
            "id": "E001",
            "name": "Ebro",
            "iaga": "EBR",
            "lat_deg": 40.96,
            "lon_deg": 0.33,
            "dome_coverage": 0.95,
            "dome_fsf": 1.029,
            "dome_predicted_delta_b_nt_bou_baseline": -10.66,
            "disc_r_km": 10907,
            "min_dist_to_dome_umbra_path_km": 444,
            "multiple_of_dome_penumbra_radius": 10.5,
            "inside_dome_penumbra_band": false,
            "source_provenance": "Dome 9-station table at predictions.html (V51.1 published values for `coverage` and FSF, mirrored at john09289.github.io/predictions/raw-text/03-predictions.txt — captured in our review §4.2.7a, data/sections.json part4 'p4-427-station-coverage'). Min-distance computations from §4.2.7a per-station table (AE-from-N projection, R_disc/90 charity)."
          },
          {
            "id": "E002",
            "name": "San Pablo",
            "iaga": "SPT",
            "lat_deg": 39.55,
            "lon_deg": -4.35,
            "dome_coverage": 0.9,
            "dome_fsf": 1.001,
            "dome_predicted_delta_b_nt_bou_baseline": -9.82,
            "disc_r_km": 11220,
            "min_dist_to_dome_umbra_path_km": 533,
            "multiple_of_dome_penumbra_radius": 12.6,
            "inside_dome_penumbra_band": false,
            "source_provenance": "Dome 9-station table at predictions.html (V51.1 published values for `coverage` and FSF, mirrored at john09289.github.io/predictions/raw-text/03-predictions.txt — captured in our review §4.2.7a, data/sections.json part4 'p4-427-station-coverage'). Min-distance computations from §4.2.7a per-station table (AE-from-N projection, R_disc/90 charity)."
          },
          {
            "id": "E003",
            "name": "Eskdalemuir",
            "iaga": "ESK",
            "lat_deg": 55.32,
            "lon_deg": -3.2,
            "dome_coverage": 0.55,
            "dome_fsf": 1.722,
            "dome_predicted_delta_b_nt_bou_baseline": -10.32,
            "disc_r_km": 7713,
            "min_dist_to_dome_umbra_path_km": 1217,
            "multiple_of_dome_penumbra_radius": 28.7,
            "inside_dome_penumbra_band": false,
            "source_provenance": "Dome 9-station table at predictions.html (V51.1 published values for `coverage` and FSF, mirrored at john09289.github.io/predictions/raw-text/03-predictions.txt — captured in our review §4.2.7a, data/sections.json part4 'p4-427-station-coverage'). Min-distance computations from §4.2.7a per-station table (AE-from-N projection, R_disc/90 charity)."
          },
          {
            "id": "E004",
            "name": "Lerwick",
            "iaga": "LER",
            "lat_deg": 60.13,
            "lon_deg": -1.18,
            "dome_coverage": 0.42,
            "dome_fsf": 2.075,
            "dome_predicted_delta_b_nt_bou_baseline": -9.5,
            "disc_r_km": 6642,
            "min_dist_to_dome_umbra_path_km": 1808,
            "multiple_of_dome_penumbra_radius": 42.6,
            "inside_dome_penumbra_band": false,
            "source_provenance": "Dome 9-station table at predictions.html (V51.1 published values for `coverage` and FSF, mirrored at john09289.github.io/predictions/raw-text/03-predictions.txt — captured in our review §4.2.7a, data/sections.json part4 'p4-427-station-coverage'). Min-distance computations from §4.2.7a per-station table (AE-from-N projection, R_disc/90 charity)."
          },
          {
            "id": "E005",
            "name": "Hartland",
            "iaga": "HAD",
            "lat_deg": 51,
            "lon_deg": -4.48,
            "dome_coverage": 0.8,
            "dome_fsf": 1.471,
            "dome_predicted_delta_b_nt_bou_baseline": -12.83,
            "disc_r_km": 8674,
            "min_dist_to_dome_umbra_path_km": 710,
            "multiple_of_dome_penumbra_radius": 16.7,
            "inside_dome_penumbra_band": false,
            "source_provenance": "Dome 9-station table at predictions.html (V51.1 published values for `coverage` and FSF, mirrored at john09289.github.io/predictions/raw-text/03-predictions.txt — captured in our review §4.2.7a, data/sections.json part4 'p4-427-station-coverage'). Min-distance computations from §4.2.7a per-station table (AE-from-N projection, R_disc/90 charity)."
          },
          {
            "id": "E006",
            "name": "Niemegk",
            "iaga": "NGK",
            "lat_deg": 52.07,
            "lon_deg": 12.68,
            "dome_coverage": 0.4,
            "dome_fsf": 1.529,
            "dome_predicted_delta_b_nt_bou_baseline": -6.67,
            "disc_r_km": 8435,
            "min_dist_to_dome_umbra_path_km": 3267,
            "multiple_of_dome_penumbra_radius": 77.1,
            "inside_dome_penumbra_band": false,
            "source_provenance": "Dome 9-station table at predictions.html (V51.1 published values for `coverage` and FSF, mirrored at john09289.github.io/predictions/raw-text/03-predictions.txt — captured in our review §4.2.7a, data/sections.json part4 'p4-427-station-coverage'). Min-distance computations from §4.2.7a per-station table (AE-from-N projection, R_disc/90 charity)."
          },
          {
            "id": "E007",
            "name": "Canary Islands (SNK)",
            "iaga": "GUI",
            "lat_deg": 28.32,
            "lon_deg": -16.43,
            "dome_coverage": 0.72,
            "dome_fsf": 0.642,
            "dome_predicted_delta_b_nt_bou_baseline": -5.04,
            "disc_r_km": 13717,
            "min_dist_to_dome_umbra_path_km": 4084,
            "multiple_of_dome_penumbra_radius": 96.3,
            "inside_dome_penumbra_band": false,
            "source_provenance": "Dome 9-station table at predictions.html (V51.1 published values for `coverage` and FSF, mirrored at john09289.github.io/predictions/raw-text/03-predictions.txt — captured in our review §4.2.7a, data/sections.json part4 'p4-427-station-coverage'). Min-distance computations from §4.2.7a per-station table (AE-from-N projection, R_disc/90 charity)."
          },
          {
            "id": "E008",
            "name": "Chambon",
            "iaga": "CLF",
            "lat_deg": 48.03,
            "lon_deg": 2.26,
            "dome_coverage": 0.7,
            "dome_fsf": 1.325,
            "dome_predicted_delta_b_nt_bou_baseline": -10.11,
            "disc_r_km": 9335,
            "min_dist_to_dome_umbra_path_km": 1514,
            "multiple_of_dome_penumbra_radius": 35.7,
            "inside_dome_penumbra_band": false,
            "source_provenance": "Dome 9-station table at predictions.html (V51.1 published values for `coverage` and FSF, mirrored at john09289.github.io/predictions/raw-text/03-predictions.txt — captured in our review §4.2.7a, data/sections.json part4 'p4-427-station-coverage'). Min-distance computations from §4.2.7a per-station table (AE-from-N projection, R_disc/90 charity)."
          },
          {
            "id": "E009",
            "name": "Coimbra",
            "iaga": "COI",
            "lat_deg": 40.22,
            "lon_deg": -8.42,
            "dome_coverage": 0.92,
            "dome_fsf": 1.008,
            "dome_predicted_delta_b_nt_bou_baseline": -10.11,
            "disc_r_km": 11070,
            "min_dist_to_dome_umbra_path_km": 993,
            "multiple_of_dome_penumbra_radius": 23.4,
            "inside_dome_penumbra_band": false,
            "source_provenance": "Dome 9-station table at predictions.html (V51.1 published values for `coverage` and FSF, mirrored at john09289.github.io/predictions/raw-text/03-predictions.txt — captured in our review §4.2.7a, data/sections.json part4 'p4-427-station-coverage'). Min-distance computations from §4.2.7a per-station table (AE-from-N projection, R_disc/90 charity)."
          }
        ],
        "amplitude_range_nT": [
          -12.83,
          -5.04
        ],
        "confidence_bound": "Per-station central values exact-arithmetic from dome-published inputs; falsification tolerance ±2 nT (see noise_floor_pre_commitment). The range across stations is -12.83 nT (Hartland) to -5.04 nT (Canary) under BOU-baseline convention.",
        "alternate_baseline_note": "Our review §4.2.3 documents that the dome publishes a second baseline (W004) that yields larger per-station amplitudes (range -10 to -26 nT, with Hartland at -26.2 nT). The dual-baseline structure is itself a §4.2.3 issue; we register the BOU-baseline numbers here because BOU is the dome-cited 2017 anchor used in WIN-010.",
        "internal_inconsistency_with_dome_PRED_095": "The dome's PRED-095 / PRED-TIER-1 (registered 2026-04-04) specify -17 to -21 nT at >80% coverage stations. Computing the dome's BOU-baseline formula at the dome's own published coverage and FSF values yields -10.66 nT (Ebro), -12.83 nT (Hartland), -10.10 nT (Coimbra), -9.82 nT (San Pablo) for the four >80% coverage stations — none in the -17 to -21 nT range. The internal mismatch between dome formula and dome PRED amplitude is documented in our review §4.2.3.",
        "review_cross_ref": "data/sections.json part4 §4.2.7a station table (dome-published coverage and FSF) + §4.2.3 (dual-baseline framing) + data/predictions.json PRED-095, PRED-TIER-1 (amplitude window)",
        "review_commit_sha": "cd8af4b5d9c4e0d182b71ba6734dd0f0310011b5",
        "r_p_used_for_multipliers_km": 42.4,
        "amplitude_range_nT_signed": [
          -12.83,
          -5.04
        ],
        "amplitude_caveats": [
          "All values are SIGNED ΔB deviations (negative convention — see sign_convention block).",
          "Per-station central values are exact-arithmetic from dome-published numerical inputs (no scientific uncertainty added). Falsification tolerance is the noise_floor_pre_commitment ±2 nT threshold; per-station match/no-match is decided by |observed - dome_central| ≤ 2 nT.",
          "The range across stations is -12.83 nT (Hartland) to -5.04 nT (Canary) under the BOU-baseline convention."
        ]
      },
      {
        "claim_id": "B2-M-002",
        "claim": "Geometric closure: under dome geometry, 8 of 9 dome-cited stations cannot record a meaningful eclipse magnetic signal because they sit outside the dome-geometry penumbra band, even though the dome's own ΔB formula assigns them a non-zero magnitude.",
        "value": "0 of 9 inside the 84.7-km penumbra band under R_disc/90 charity; ≤ 1 of 9 inside under stricter R_disc/180 convention",
        "implication": "If the dome's V51 occultation geometry is correct, 8 or 9 of the 9 named stations must record exactly zero signal during the eclipse window. The dome's own ΔB formula assigning -5 to -13 nT to all 9 is therefore incompatible with V51 geometry.",
        "review_cross_ref": "data/sections.json part4 §4.2.7a 'Falsification' subsection",
        "review_commit_sha": "cd8af4b5d9c4e0d182b71ba6734dd0f0310011b5"
      }
    ]
  },
  "bucket_3_falsification_criteria": {
    "description": "Symmetric falsification criteria. After the 2026 Aug 12 event, the observations on the published surface (NASA path data, INTERMAGNET 1-minute traces, Sun obscuration percentages at named stations) determine which model — if either — survives. The criteria below are pre-registered. We commit to honoring them whether the verdict favors us or not.",
    "falsifies_dome_model": {
      "claim_id": "B3-F-DOME",
      "criteria": [
        "OBS-D-01: Observed central-line path-of-totality width at greatest eclipse matches NASA's 294 km prediction within ±20 km tolerance, AND maximum totality duration matches NASA's 138.2 s within ±10 s tolerance. Standard physics is corroborated; dome-geometry-forced 1.317-km totality strip and ≤7-s single-station duration is falsified.",
        "OBS-D-02 (operationalized rev2): Magnetic field at the 9 dome-cited stations during the eclipse window deviates from ΔB = -10.9 × coverage × FSF (BOU baseline, signed convention) by more than the noise_floor_pre_commitment threshold of ±2 nT at >= 5 of the 9 dome-cited stations under Kp < 2 conditions. Specifically: the dome formula is FALSIFIED if |ΔB_observed_signed - ΔB_dome_central_signed| > 2 nT for at least 5 of the 9 stations during the eclipse window. (Pre-rev2 wording was \"deviate by > 2× per-station noise floor at a majority of stations\" — both noise floor and majority are now numeric pre-commitments.)",
        "OBS-D-03 (operationalized rev2): Compute Pearson r1 = correlation between observed peak |ΔB_signed| (after baseline subtraction per pre-registered protocol in post_event_protocol step 2) and NASA-Besselian-element-derived per-station obscuration percentage across the 9 dome-cited stations. Compute Pearson r2 = correlation between observed peak |ΔB_signed| and dome-published \"coverage\" values across the same 9 stations. The dome formula is FALSIFIED if r1 > r2 AND the difference (r1 - r2) is statistically significant at p < 0.05 under a paired Steiger Z-test on dependent correlations (or equivalent paired-bootstrap test on 9-station data). This is the §4.2.7 trilemma's \"Borrowed\" branch made empirical: globe physics chooses where the signal appears, the dome's per-station coverage table is a parasitic relabeling. (Pre-rev2 wording was qualitative \"tracks NASA per-station obscuration\".)",
        "OBS-D-04: At least one of the 9 dome-cited stations is observed to be inside the standard-physics path of partial eclipse (i.e., NASA-Besselian-element-derived obscuration > 0%) AND records a SIGNED ΔB deviation in the Chapman-Sq predicted range [-25, -5] nT for that obscuration during quiet conditions (Kp < 2). This corroborates standard physics for at least one named dome station and falsifies any dome reading in which that station was supposed to record a different signal."
      ]
    },
    "falsifies_standard_physics": {
      "claim_id": "B3-F-STDPHYS",
      "criteria": [
        "OBS-S-01: Observed path-of-totality width at greatest eclipse is ~1 km (consistent with dome geometry) rather than ~294 km (consistent with NASA Besselian elements). Dome geometry is corroborated; standard physics is falsified. Tolerance: any observation < 10 km wide path-of-totality on the central-line is incompatible with NASA's 294 km prediction.",
        "OBS-S-02: At all 9 dome-cited stations AND at all 5 candidate non-dome-cited stations (see candidate_non_dome_intermagnet_stations), NO magnetic dip is observed during the eclipse window despite NASA-predicted high obscuration at the Iberian-Atlantic and north-western European stations and quiet conditions (Kp < 2). Specifically: peak SIGNED ΔB at any high-obscuration (NASA obscuration > 50%) station is in [-1, +1] nT (i.e., absolute value < 1 nT) during the eclipse window. This would falsify Chapman-Sq.",
        "OBS-S-03: Observed per-station Sun obscuration percentages diverge from NASA Besselian-elements predictions by > 10 percentage points at >= 5 of the 9 dome-cited stations. This would falsify the standard-physics geometric prediction for the event."
      ]
    },
    "falsifies_our_analysis": {
      "claim_id": "B3-F-OURS",
      "criteria": [
        "OBS-O-01 (rev2 clarified): BOTH standard-physics geometric predictions AND dome-geometry-forced geometric predictions are corroborated by observation. SYMBOLIC ON GEOMETRIC BUCKET — mutual corroboration of 294 km path width and 1.317 km totality strip is geometrically impossible, so the criterion is logically empty for the geometric bucket but is preserved here for symmetry. ON THE MAGNETIC BUCKET, OBS-O-01 fires only if observation lies CLEANLY OUTSIDE BOTH ranges — i.e., observed signed peak ΔB is positive (sign-flip from both models' negative convention) OR < -50 nT (an order of magnitude beyond either model's upper-bound magnitude). An observation in the 5-13 nT magnitude overlap zone where both Chapman-Sq and dome-formula ranges intersect is NON-DISCRIMINATING and does NOT trigger OBS-O-01.",
        "OBS-O-02: A measurement methodology not anticipated in this file produces an observation that cannot be cleanly interpreted under either Chapman-Sq or dome-geometry. Examples: a hitherto-unmodeled signal mode (e.g., a non-magnetic, non-gravitational coupling between obscuration and station readouts that neither framework predicts); a measurement artifact at a previously-uncharacterized scale that contaminates both models' signals identically. In such a case our trilemma framing remains valid but our claim that the August 12 2026 event is a clean test of either model is weakened, and we publicly note the limit.",
        "OBS-O-03 (rev2 with pre-registered station list): IF observed per-station signed ΔB at the 9 dome-cited stations matches dome's BOU-baseline formula predictions (B2-M-001 per_station central values) within the noise_floor_pre_commitment ±2 nT tolerance AND no signed ΔB dip greater than -2 nT (signed) is observed at ANY of the 5 pre-registered candidate non-dome-cited high-obscuration stations (MAB, DOU, WNG, SUA, BEL) — that pattern is unexplained under either standard physics (which predicts Chapman-Sq at all high-obscuration stations regardless of dome's selection) or dome geometry (which puts every dome-cited station outside the penumbra band). Our analysis would need to be expanded to account for whatever mechanism privileges the 9 dome-cited stations specifically."
      ]
    }
  },
  "registered_predictions_summary": {
    "table": "ID | Bucket | Claim summary",
    "rows": [
      "B1-G-001 | B1 standard physics | Path width 294 km ± 5 km",
      "B1-G-002 | B1 standard physics | Max duration 138.2 s ± 0.1 s",
      "B1-G-003 | B1 standard physics (input) | Sun semi-diameter 15' 47.0\" (NASA Besselian elements input to B2-G-001/002)",
      "B1-G-004 | B1 standard physics (input) | Moon semi-diameter 16' 16.9\" (NASA Besselian elements input to B2-G-001/002)",
      "B1-G-005 | B1 standard physics | Hartland peak obscuration 88% ± 2 pp",
      "B1-M-001 | B1 standard physics | Chapman-Sq signed ΔB [-25, -5] nT at high-coverage stations, Kp<2",
      "B2-G-001 | B2 dome geometry | Totality diameter 1.317 km ± 0.03 km",
      "B2-G-002 | B2 dome geometry | Penumbra radius R_p = 42.4 km ± 2 km (canonical; basis for all multipliers)",
      "B2-G-003 | B2 dome geometry | Single-station totality duration 0.9–7 s",
      "B2-G-004 | B2 dome geometry | 0/9 dome stations inside dome-geometry penumbra band (R_disc/90 charity)",
      "B2-M-001 | B2 dome geometry | Per-station signed ΔB from dome BOU formula -12.83 to -5.04 nT (±2 nT tolerance)",
      "B2-M-002 | B2 dome geometry | 8/9 dome stations should record |ΔB| < 2 nT (i.e., within noise floor, indistinguishable from zero) during eclipse window",
      "B3-F-DOME | B3 falsification | Dome model falsified by OBS-D-01..04 (operationalized in rev2)",
      "B3-F-STDPHYS | B3 falsification | Standard physics falsified by OBS-S-01..03",
      "B3-F-OURS | B3 falsification | Our analysis falsified by OBS-O-01..03 (rev2 clarifies OBS-O-01 vacuity on geometric bucket)"
    ]
  },
  "post_event_protocol": {
    "evaluation_date": "2026-08-12 + 30 days (target)",
    "procedure": [
      "1. After 2026-08-12, retrieve INTERMAGNET 1-minute data for all 9 dome-cited stations AND all 5 candidate non-dome-cited stations (MAB, DOU, WNG, SUA, BEL) covering the eclipse window (UT 16:00 to 19:30 — wider than ±60 min around greatest eclipse to capture E-region recovery).",
      "2. PRE-REGISTERED PREPROCESSING (rev2): Use H-component, 1-minute INTERMAGNET cadence. Compute baseline as the mean of the same UT-hour values on the 5 quietest days (Kp ≤ 1; ties broken by lowest daily Kp-sum) of the 30 days preceding 2026-08-12. Eclipse-window peak ΔB is the maximum |signed-deviation| in the ±60 min window centered on the station's local maximum coverage moment (NASA local-circumstances). All ΔB values reported as SIGNED deviations from this baseline.",
      "3. Retrieve NASA per-station local-circumstances obscuration for each of the 9 dome-cited stations and 5 candidate non-dome-cited stations (eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov local-circumstances calculator at the station's WGS84 coordinates).",
      "4. Compare observed signed ΔB per station to (a) Bucket 2 per-station central values (dome BOU formula), (b) Bucket 1 Chapman-Sq amplitude window scaled to per-station obscuration. Apply OBS-D-02 (per-station ±2 nT noise floor, >=5/9 quorum), OBS-D-03 (paired Pearson r test), and OBS-O-03 (candidate-set comparison) decision rules.",
      "5. Test each falsification criterion in Bucket 3 (B3-F-DOME OBS-D-01..04, B3-F-STDPHYS OBS-S-01..03, B3-F-OURS OBS-O-01..03). Record which criteria (if any) fired with explicit decision provenance.",
      "6. Publish results in a separate dated file under predictions/eclipse-2026-08-12-results.json (and OTS-anchor it independently from this file). DO NOT modify this frozen prediction file."
    ],
    "honesty_clause": "If observation falsifies our analysis (Bucket 3 OBS-O criteria), we publicly retract the relevant analysis in our review and update §4.2.7 / §4.2.7a accordingly. The frozen file remains as the registered prediction; the retraction is published in a separate dated addendum.",
    "dome_version_drift_policy": "If the dome publishes V51.x ≠ V51.1 between freeze date 2026-05-02 and event date 2026-08-12, this frozen file's bucket-2 predictions remain registered as the V51.1-at-pinned-SHA commitment. We will note V51.x's revised predictions separately in the post-event evaluation, but our trilemma test is against V51.1 at the pinned SHA c3b9f56, not against the dome's most-recent-as-of-evaluation parameters."
  },
  "sign_convention": {
    "description": "All magnetic-amplitude predictions in this file refer to SIGNED deviations from a quiet-day H-component baseline. Sq-current weakening during eclipse-driven E-region cooling produces a NEGATIVE deviation under both standard physics (Chapman-Sq mechanism) and the dome formula (BOU-baseline negative anchor times positive coverage*FSF). A NEGATIVE observed value corroborates either model in its predicted range; a POSITIVE observed value would falsify both unless explained by an unanticipated mechanism.",
    "applies_to": [
      "B1-M-001",
      "B2-M-001",
      "B2-M-002",
      "OBS-D-02",
      "OBS-D-04",
      "OBS-S-02",
      "OBS-O-01",
      "OBS-O-03"
    ],
    "prior_rev_inconsistency_note": "Rev1 stated B1-M-001 as positive [5, 25] nT (magnitude framing) and B2-M-001 as signed [-12.83, -5.04] nT. Rev2 unifies to signed convention throughout."
  },
  "noise_floor_pre_commitment": {
    "threshold_nT": 2,
    "threshold_basis": "Numeric pre-commitment, station-uniform. Equal to typical 1-sigma RMS noise of INTERMAGNET 1-minute H-component data at European mid-latitude observatories during Kp<2 conditions; conservative upper bound for the 9 dome-cited stations.",
    "applies_to": "OBS-D-02 (per-station deviation test) and per-station tolerance for B2-M-001 falsification.",
    "alternative_procedural_definition_for_record": "2-sigma of H-component variability over the 30 quiet days (Kp≤2) immediately preceding the 2026-08-12 event, computed from INTERMAGNET 1-minute data, station-specific. We pre-commit to the simpler ±2 nT numeric threshold; the procedural definition is recorded for reference but is not the falsification trigger."
  },
  "candidate_non_dome_intermagnet_stations": {
    "description": "Pre-registered candidate set for OBS-O-03. These are INTERMAGNET observatories not on the dome's 9-station list that lie within plausible NASA-predicted partial-coverage band on 2026-08-12 over north-western/central Europe and which we commit to checking alongside the 9 dome-cited stations.",
    "selection_criteria_pre_registered": "European mid-latitude INTERMAGNET observatories with continuous 1-minute H-component data on 2026-08-12, NOT in the dome's 9-station table, and with NASA-Besselian-element-derived obscuration > 30% during the eclipse window. Set size frozen at 5 to limit cherry-picking ambiguity.",
    "stations": [
      {
        "iaga": "MAB",
        "name": "Manhay",
        "country": "Belgium",
        "lat_deg_N": 50.3,
        "lon_deg_E": 5.68
      },
      {
        "iaga": "DOU",
        "name": "Dourbes",
        "country": "Belgium",
        "lat_deg_N": 50.1,
        "lon_deg_E": 4.6
      },
      {
        "iaga": "WNG",
        "name": "Wingst",
        "country": "Germany",
        "lat_deg_N": 53.74,
        "lon_deg_E": 9.07
      },
      {
        "iaga": "SUA",
        "name": "Surlari",
        "country": "Romania",
        "lat_deg_N": 44.68,
        "lon_deg_E": 26.25
      },
      {
        "iaga": "BEL",
        "name": "Belsk",
        "country": "Poland",
        "lat_deg_N": 51.84,
        "lon_deg_E": 20.79
      }
    ],
    "set_locking_note": "This candidate set is FROZEN by the OTS anchor. If post-event a station is added or removed from the list, that revision is documented in a separate dated addendum with rationale; the original set remains the prediction-of-record for OBS-O-03 evaluation."
  }
}